Of the 174 TDs to be elected based on the tally data we have, 136 of the seats look pretty nailed on.
And what the figures show is the transfer battles for final seats will be decisive.
Based on my looking at the numbers currently:
FF 36
SF 35
FG 34
IND/OTH 12
LAB 6
SOC DEM 6
IND. IRE 4
SPBP 2
AON 1
GREEN 0
This comes with the usual health warnings and leaves 38 seats across the country in play and yet to be decided.